I’ve also included +2 as a point of reference to show that it’s not profitable at all (Data goes back to 2003): Bet TypeĪlthough taking the points seems safer than taking the moneyline, over the long haul you can see that it’s actually more beneficial to roll the dice and take the short underdog to win straight up.

The table below shows the records if bettors took +2.5 points on the spread compared to the moneyline, and +3 points on the spread compared to the moneyline. (Note: Bettors can calculate odds of buying half points here.) In the NFL, buying a half-point from +2.5 to +3 costs about 25 cents depending on the sportsbook. The moneyline equivalent to +2.5 points on the spread is roughly +125, while +3 points translates to roughly +140 on the moneyline. While it’s obvious to most bettors that shopping for a better line of +3 is preferable to taking +2.5, that is not always an option. There’s plenty of data and statistics from our historical database to help bettors make the same decision each and every time. Most weeks there will be at least two or three games with the dreaded spread of +2.5 leaving bettors asking themselves, “Should I bet the +2.5, buy the half-point to +3, or just take the moneyline?” Since so many spreads in the NFL are closer than in College Football, the results tend to be closer as well. In the NFL some of the most important key numbers include 3, 7, and 10. Article was originally published on Octoand has been updated and edited to reflect October 28, 2016

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